2016 Hurricane Season Update
With the 2016 hurricane season beginning Wednesday, June 1, the college administration has made preparations for potential storms and storm surges/flooding. All college employees are encouraged to take a moment to review their campus and department severe-weather policies and plans and go over the pertinent information with students. Both employees and students should also review their personal emergency weather plans.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs through November 30, will most likely be near-normal, but forecast uncertainty in the climate signals that influence the formation of Atlantic storms make predicting this season particularly difficult.
NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which four to eight could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including one to four major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). While a near-normal season is most likely with a 45 percent chance, there is also a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season. Included in today’s outlook is Hurricane Alex, a pre-season storm that formed over the far eastern Atlantic in January.
NOAA reports that there is uncertainty about whether the high activity era of Atlantic hurricanes, which began in 1995, has ended. This high-activity era has been associated with an ocean temperature pattern called the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation or AMO, marked by warmer Atlantic Ocean temperatures and a stronger West African monsoon. However, during the last three years, weaker hurricane seasons have been accompanied by a shift toward the cool AMO phase, marked by cooler Atlantic Ocean temperatures and a weaker West African monsoon. If this shift proves to be more than short-lived, it could usher in a low-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes, and this period may already have begun. High- and low-activity eras typically last 25 to 40 years.
Additionally, El Niño is dissipating, and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a 70 percent chance that La Niña —which favors more hurricane activity— will be present during the peak months of hurricane season, August through October. However, current model predictions show uncertainty as to how strong La Niña and its impacts will be.
The MGCCC administration wants to remain prepared for any eventuality as there is always a possibility of a storm striking the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Communications play a key role during any emergency, so college information will be communicated through the Blackboard Connect system, the website, social media and the college’s toll-free number.
To enhance communication efforts, please review the following checklist:
▪ To ensure notification through Blackboard Connect, visit Web Services by logging in through the college website. Once you have logged in to the secure area, update your emergency notification information at the bottom, left-hand side of the page under the Personal Information tab. It will ask you to provide both a cell phone number and emergency email address. You will receive emergency information as a telephone call/voice mail, as a text message and as an email message.
▪ Employees and students are encouraged to check the website, check the MGCCC Facebook page and follow the college’s Twitter feed or call the college’s toll-free phone number, 1-866-735-1122, for periodic college updates during severe-weather situations.
▪ If evacuation becomes necessary, students and employees who evacuate will find important updates through local television, radio and newspapers as well as the Mississippi Public Broadcasting’s statewide network of radio and television affiliates. MPB’s radio frequencies are listed on all state evacuation signs.
▪ The college administration will continue to monitor evolving conditions in the tropics and will issue updates throughout the summer and fall.
▪ Periodic updates will be posted on this special section of the website throughout the 2016 hurricane season.
The following sites are also important to hurricane preparedness:
▪ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/ready.php
▪ https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane
▪ https://www.ready.gov/hurricanes
▪ http://mdot.ms.gov/portal/emergency_services.aspx
The safety, protection and well being of our employees and students are of the utmost importance as we prepare for severe weather and other emergencies.